The PolySwarm Blog

Executive Summary

Recent developments involving Iran illustrate how states with degraded or constrained cyber capabilities may shift toward signals intelligence and electronic warfare to compensate for reduced offensive cyber capacity. Following recent strikes and internet disruptions that limited Iran’s ability to coordinate sophisticated cyber operations, analysts observed a greater reliance on intelligence collection, proxy activity, and electronic-domain pressure operations. Accordingly, PolySwarm analysts chose to highlight another potential flashpoint, Cuba, which similarly lacks robust offensive cyber capability and would likely rely on signals intelligence, electronic surveillance, and electronic warfare activities in the event of escalating confrontation. Although Cuba lacks advanced offensive cyber or electronic warfare capabilities comparable to major cyber powers, the island’s geography enables monitoring of critical telecommunications, maritime routes, and military communications across the Caribbean.